Will electric mobility really contribute to the ecological transition of cities?

Context and challenges

The ecological transition of cities involves a profound transformation of transport systems, which are among the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and the occupation of space. In this context, electric mobility (and in particular the electric vehicle) is widely promoted as a cleaner alternative, supported by public policies, tax incentives and the development of charging infrastructure.

However, the environmental benefits of electric vehicles are not automatic. Their production, particularly that of batteries, generates a significant environmental impact. In addition, rebound effects can emerge: an increase in distances travelled, the abandonment of public transport, relocation to peri-urban areas, etc. These behavioural dynamics can reduce, or even cancel out, the expected gains in terms of emissions and sustainability.

Objectives and methods

This thesis, focused on the Île-de-France region, aims to assess whether electric vehicles are a truly effective lever for the urban ecological transition, by integrating the direct and indirect effects on mobility behaviour.

The project relies on an interdisciplinary approach that combines transport economics, behaviour modelling and multi-agent simulation using the MATSim tool. The aim is to assess in detail the direct and indirect effects of the deployment of electric vehicles on mobility dynamics. The first step is to quantify and model rebound effects, which are still little studied, such as the increase in distances travelled or the modal shift away from public transport. The project then analyses the behavioural changes induced by the adoption of these vehicles, before integrating these dynamics into a multi-agent simulation that makes it possible to test different transition scenarios. This approach aims to produce concrete recommendations to steer public policies towards electric-mobility deployment strategies that maximise environmental benefits.

The methodology unfolds in three phases:

• environmental and economic assessment of electric vehicles;
• analysis of mobility behaviour and its impacts;
• multi-agent simulation of scenarios integrating these behaviours.

The expected results will make it possible to better understand the conditions for the environmental effectiveness of electric mobility, to quantify rebound effects, and to propose avenues for a coherent and sustainable urban transition.

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