How do energy prices influence mobility demand? A retrospective and prospective analysis

Context and challenges

Mobility is strongly influenced by variations in energy prices, which affect both individual behaviour and collective decisions regarding infrastructure and taxation. In a context of energy transition, these fluctuations raise major issues in terms of the resilience of territories and social equity. Understanding how households and local authorities react to energy developments is essential in order to design mobility policies that are sustainable, inclusive and adapted to socio-spatial realities.

Objectives and method

This thesis aims to analyse the links between energy prices, mobility behaviour and territorial justice. It pursues two main objectives: measuring the elasticities of transport demand in relation to energy variations, taking socio-spatial inequalities into account, and simulating the effects of different energy and fiscal scenarios on the resilience and equity of territories.

To this end, the methodology relies on the use of various French databases combined with econometric modelling tools, in particular Bayesian structural time series (BSTS), which make it possible to anticipate changes in demand. Fiscal and territorial microsimulations are also used to test reforms and analyse their distributive impact. The ultimate aim is to provide decision-support tools for mobility policies that are consistent with the objectives of energy transition and social justice.